throbber

`
`COWEN
`
`AND COM ® ARN ¥
`
`
`
`July 22, 2016
`
`= Tobacco
`Vivien Azer
`646.562.1351
`vivien.azer@cowen.com
`
`Aaron Grey, CFA
`646.562.1421
`
`aaron.grey@cowen.com
`
`Innovation Invigorates Inhalables
`TheCowentnsight=
`
`innovation is driving renewed growth in the e-cig category. PAX’s JUUL and MO's
`MarkTen XL look to be driving much of the category improvement, while RAI’s Vuse
`is posting steady growth and NJOY's trends are recovering. While not driving a
`noticeable shift away fromcigarettes, it is encouraging to see that better technologyis
`again driving trial.
`
`Trial Remains High, Maybe This Round of Innovation Drives Better Retention?
`
`For 10 consecutive months (through April 2016), we had been seeing notable declines
`in tracked-channele-cig sales. However, the category has returned to growth in the
`last 2 months(in Nielsen). While that surely reflects the benefits of easier comparisons
`(whichwill persist), innovation also looks to be playing a role. While category retention
`remains low (~11.3%, according to RAI), new innovation could surely go a long wayin
`terms of driving consumersto the vapor category. Indeed, in 2015, we saw a 100 bps
`improvementin retention rates, which waslikely a function of national launches from
`RAI and MO. As companies race against the FDA clock (deadline for new product
`introductions is August 8), it is encouraging to see that new innovation is again driving
`trial in the category.
`Nicotine Salts: Packs a Punch
`
`While much of the e-cig category is comprised oftraditional liquid nicotine offerings,
`PAX Labs' JUUL utilizes nicotine salts technology. We recently met with management,
`and were impressed to learn that their research indicates that the nicotine uptake
`on JUUL is substantially better than for e-liquids that rely on free-base nicotine.
`While JUUL is super-premium priced,relative to traditional offerings ($50 starter
`kit, $4/cartomizer), after 1 year on the market, the productis now in 12,000 points
`of sale (with a ~7% ACV), with revenues up over 90%since the beginning of the
`year (sequentially). This good growth reflects notable trial and retention (which PAX
`believes is running 2x any competing brand), which webelieve reflects the superior
`nicotine uptake delivered bythis differentiated offering.
`
`Opportunity to Win with Traditional E-Liquid
`
`Many of the smaller players in the e-cigarette category continue to face significant
`revenue pressure, with many posting consistent double-digit declines. RAl and MO
`(both with a $10 starter kit) are bucking this trend, as both companiesare seeing solid
`growthin e-cigs. For market share leader RAI, Vuse commands a 36%revenue share,
`posting dollar sales growth of 9% on a TTW basis. Retention looks to be quite good
`for RAI as more than 85%of sales are coming from cartridges. For MO, the company's
`updated MarkTen XLlooksto be driving renewed growth for the brand family, as
`Nielsen data would indicate that sales have fully transitioned to this larger format
`offering. For NJOY, the companyis targeting the value-end of the category with their
`Daily disposable e-cig ($5.99). While revenuesarestill in decline, Daily has helped
`drive a material improvement.
`
`Mindful of Sustainability
`
`Weremain interested, but we think appropriately cautious, on e-cigs given the low
`levels of consumer retention that we see in the category. To be sure, current growth
`
`.
`-
`Pl
`8 to 13 of thi
`rt fori
`i
`F
`
`
`
`WWhA.cowen.com to13oflease see pages8 this report for MPPPELIGISPage 1 of 13
`
`JLI'S CONFIDENTIAL BUSINESS INFORMATION SUBJECT TO PROTECTIVE ORDER
`JLI-NJOY-ITC1368-02013586
`
`JLI Ex. 2035, Page 1 of 13
`
`

`

`Cowen and Company
`Equity Research
`
`July 22, 2016
`
`
`
`is encouraging, but also reflects the benefits of expandeddistribution. Indeed, we
`still remember well the market share growth that LO saw with their blu offering in
`2012/2013 (which was followed by declines in market share once the brand reached
`full distribution). For our public companies, these businesses thankfully still remain
`small, and have notat all disrupted the health of the traditional tobacco category in
`the U.S., where we remain constructive, given: (1) higher minimum wages, (2) lower
`levels of unemployment, and (3) still accomodative gas prices.
`
`2
`
`WHA.COWER.COM
`
`JLI Ex. 2035, Page 2 of 13
`JL’'S CONFIDENTIAL BUSINESS INFORMATION SUBJECT TO PROTECTIVE ORDER
`JLI-NJOY-ITC1368-02013587
`
`JLI Ex. 2035, Page 2 of 13
`
`

`

`Cowen and Company
`Equity Research
`
`July 22, 2016
`
`Innovation Invigorates Inhalables
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`In the highly-fragmented e-cig category, trends have been mixed and quite volatile.
`After 10 consecutive monthsof dollar sales declines, the category hasfinally returned
`to growth. While in part that likely reflects the benefits of easier comparisons (which
`will persist), we believe that new innovation is also contributing to these improved
`trends for the category,in traditional tobacco outlets. While category retention
`remains low, these better trends could result in better consumer conversion. Indeed,
`in 2015, we saw a 100 bpsincrease in category retention, which we attribute to the
`national launchesof e-cig offerings from RAI (Vuse) and MO (MarkTen).
`
`Figure 1 E-Cig Category Finally Recovering...
`
`Figure 2 ...PerhapsIt will Drive Better Category Retention
`
`MarkTen
`Lap MarkTen&
`&RAI
`RAI Benefit
`
`
`
`JUUL
`
`Launche
`bgundh
`
`0%
`
`F
`S 40%
`S
`=
`65
`20%
`rs
`2
`“
`-
`S -20%
`8
`oO
`= -40%
`oO
`$@
`2
`
` c
`
`10.2%
`
`10.3%
`
`11.3%
`
`8.1%
`
`12.0%,
`:
`.
`g
`210.006
`=
`10.0%
`ne
`S 8.0%
`@
`com
`E 6.0%
`S
`3 4.0%
`o
`-
`
`2.0%
`0.0%
`
`oO oO
`Tr TT TO mom mM mom mH Oo
`§§S5SSSSSSSSS885
`RASELLSRSFERssa
`noo Nh OD Nt ownon- - OW
`.
`.
`Total E-Cigs (Ex. JUUL and MarkTen XL
`
`Total E-Cigs
`
`Source: The Nielsen Company and Cowen and Company
`
`*019
`
`9013
`
`014
`
`9015
`
`Note: Retention measured as reported exclusive vaporuserelative to trial
`Source: Campany Reports and Cowen and Company
`
`To be sure, the absence of robust growth in Nielsen channels only tells part of the
`story, given that over 50% of category sales occur outside of measured channels.
`Indeed, on a total category basis, growth has looked notably better, although it has
`decelerated, reinforcing the need for better innovation.
`
`Figure 3 With Growth Slowing Overall...
`
`Figure 4 ...Better C&G Trends Would Clearly Help
`
`Source: Company Reports and Cowen and Company
`
`i Sept-14 @ April-15 @Sept-15 # April-16
`Source: Cowen and Company Next Gen Tobacco Survey, April 2016
`
`JLI Ex. 2035, Page 3 of 13
`JLI’'S CONFIDENTIAL BUSINESS INFORMATION SUBJECT TO PROTECTIVE ORDER
`JLI-NJOY-ITC1368-02013588
`
`WWW.COWEnR.COM
`
`~+25%
`
`~+50%
`
`
`
`U.S.NextGenRetailSales(S$in bns)
`
`3.0
`
`2.5
`
`2.0
`
`1.0
`
`0.5
`
`~+150%
`
`~+100%
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`PrimaryPlaceofPurchase(Total
`
`45%4
`
`
`
`60%
`Respondents) 3&
` 18%19%
`
`Convenience and_—Specialty Stores Online
`
`|
`
`0.0
`Gas Stores
`2012
`2013
`2014
`2015
`
`JLI Ex. 2035, Page 3 of 13
`
`

`

`Cowen and Company
`Equity Research
`
`July 22, 2016
`
`
`
`In particular, PAX’s JUUL
`Innovation looks to be a key driver of the improved trends.
`has gained particular traction, as has MO’s MarkTen XL, while RAI’s Vuse continues to
`grow at a respectable clip (alsolikely a function of innovation). And, while still in
`decline, NJOY has also seen some improvementin trend, following the launch oftheir
`Daily product.
`
`PAX Labs (JUUL)
`
`e
`
`Last week we met with PAX Labs CEO Tyler Goldman, as well as CFO Tim
`Danaher. The company’s e-cig, JUUL, was a key focus as managementbelieves
`the product's innovative technology can help smokers convert to less harmful e-
`cigs. Unlike most e-cigs, JUUL uses nicotine salts, as opposed to free-base
`nicotine, which provides the consumer with a moresatisfying nicotine experience,
`moresimilar to that of a traditional cigarette. This agrees with our own Cowen
`Vaping Survey, where JUUL boasted the highest conversion rates among listed
`brands.
`JUUL first launched in June of 2015 and is now in 12,000 outlets,
`including Chevron, Circle K, Speedway, and Sheetz (with a ~7% ACV). JUUL’s
`results thus far have been impressive,particularly given its super-premium
`positioning as starter kits retail for $50 and a four-pack refill pack sells for $16.
`
`Figure 5 JUUL's Nicotine Salts Provide Greater ConsumerSatisfaction...
`
`
`Figure 6 ...Fueling Conversion
`
`
`
`_—
`
`73% 73%oy, ( 73%
`
`80%
`
`=2
`
`ey
`os
`
`a combustion cigarette
`Laren Cis
`PAS Laba pintionn: ~ as tested
`We VOR Wen GAMtee ~ Connervorgior?
`Waely Sakuhded ups POOR mio
`
`70% -163985% g3rg206
`B
`= 60%
`&
`a
`9
`Ss 50%
`40%
`$= 30%
`3°
`O 20%
`10% »
`
`:
`\
`pW use wor yeie® 8 ono?
`youl
`se
`.
`@ Sept 15
`®@April 16
`
`
`
`.
`
`%
`eae
`
`eee
`
`wO
`
`tine afoot beet pull Go
`
`:
`
`Source: Pax and Cowen and Company
`
`ice
`iii
`
`sp
`
`0
`
`
`
`0%
`
`Note: Defined as current use divided bytrial use
`Source: Cowen and Company Next Gen Tobacco Survey, April 2016
`
`Indeed, the company announcedthat dollar sales grew 94%in June 2016,
`compared to December 2015. While Nielsen data does not break-out JUUL, the
`SKUsare included within the cartridges segment. Using all “other” cartridges as a
`proxy for JUUL in our Nielsen data, these growth rates are readily apparent.
`
`Figure 7 JUUL's Growth Has Been Impressive
`
`
`94.0%
`100%
`80%
`
`59% 47.0%
`
`
`32.0%
`31.0%
`21.2%
`
`
`
`7.8%
` 9.1%
`
`
`
`1016 Vs. 4015
`2Q16 Vs. 1016
`Growth Since Start of Yr.
`
`m PAX Reported JUUL Growth=Other E-Cigs; Cartridges * Total E-Cigs; Cartridges
`Note: PAX Reported JUUL growth is according to IRI data; Other E-Cigs within the cartridges segment is used to represent JUULtrends as
`the brandis not broken out within Nielsen; Nielsen growth rates are not based off exact quarterly dates
`Source: Company Reports, The Nielsen Company and Cowen and Company
`
`
`
`YoYDollarSales
`
`Growth >Ss&
`
`13%
`
`4
`
`WANCOWGN.COn
`
`JLI Ex. 2035, Page 4 of 13
`JL’'S CONFIDENTIAL BUSINESS INFORMATION SUBJECT TO PROTECTIVE ORDER
`JLI-NJOY-ITC1368-02013589
`
`JLI Ex. 2035, Page 4 of 13
`
`

`

`Cowen and Company
`Equity Research
`
`July 22, 2016
`
`Since its launch in June 2015, trends have continued to improve, with growth
`accelerating each period this year. This has provided a nicelift for the e-cig
`category as a whole, including a ~200 bps benefit to category dollar sales growth
`in the most recent period. What is more, given JUUL’s premium positioning,
`positive mix has also fueled better sales growth.
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`Figure 8 JUUL Growth Has Accelerated Every Quarter in 2016
`
`Figure 8 JUUL’s Premium Pricing Provides a Nice Benefit to Categary Mix
`
`
`
`0,
`
`0%
`-50%
`-10%
`-15%
`,
`-20%
`
`
`
` TotalE-CigsPrice/Mix
`
`-25%
`
`JUUL
`Launch
`
`
`
`
`
`JUUL*DollarSalesGrowth
`
`350%
`300%
`250%
`200%
`150%
`100%
`50%
`0%
`-50%
`-100%
`
`JUUL
`Launch
`
`
`
`3/28/15
`
`4/25/15
`
`5/23/15
`
`6/20/15
`
`7/18/15
`
`8/15/15
`
`9/12/15
`
`10/10/15
`
`11/7/15
`
`12/5/15
`
`1/2/16
`
`1/30/16
`
`2/27/16
`
`3/26/16
`
`4/23/16
`
`40% §
`30% §
`20% &
`10%
`0% 5
`-10% 8
`-20% &
`-30m%
`— e
`NS
`Bs
`
`-40% =
`
`
`
`UUL*(all other cartridges as proxy) =" Total E-Cigs
`Source: The Nielsen Company and Cowen and Company
`
`NJOY
`
`9
`
`80%
`2S G00
`=
`© 40%
`ao
`- 20%
`= vw
`= 0%
`
`-20%
`
`we a we
`SO WO
`PPP * OY B®
`Qe
`Ww
`dh
`ow a
`UUL*(all other sonidges as proxy)
`Total E-Cigs
`
`Me
`
`Source: The Nielsen Company and Cowen and Company
`
`ay
`
`For NJOY, the company’s new product, NJOY Daily, launched in September 2015
`has seen successinits early days. While many competitors have shifted to
`rechargeables, NJOY Daily is a disposable cigaretteretailing for $5.99, with its
`value positioning likely appealing to consumers. As NJOY doubled down withits
`investmentin the disposable segment (as NJOY Kingsarestill being produced),
`disposables now make up nearly 60% of NJOY sales. While NJOY dollar sales and
`volume had been in decline for some time, the launch of Daily has contributed to
`a notable easing in dollar sales declines, while volumes have returned to growth.
`
`Figure 10 NJOY Has Increased Its Exposure to the Disposable Segment
`
`Figure 11 Daily's Helped NJOY Return to Volume Growth
`
`
`Launch
`NJOY4WeekYoY%Growth
`
`
`80%
`60%
`40% ~
`
`20% ~
`0% -
`-20%
`-40%
`-60%
`
`NJOY Daily
`
`
`
`5
`
`
`wg whSSoeosoe
`@07/18/ oalar Sales—# Volume
`
`100%
`
`80% -
`
`60%
`
`40%
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`DollarSalesContribution
`
`20%
`So=
`~)
`’
`ee
`
`
`
`
`
`m™ Cartridges ¥ Kits
`
`Disposables
`
`-Liquds
`
`Source: The Nielsen Company and Cowen and Company
`
`Source: The Nielsen Company and Cowen and Company
`
`JLI Ex. 2035, Page 5 of 13
`JLI’'S CONFIDENTIAL BUSINESS INFORMATION SUBJECT TO PROTECTIVE ORDER
`JLI-NJOY-ITC1368-02013590
`
`WWW.COWGR.COM
`
`5
`
`JLI Ex. 2035, Page 5 of 13
`
`

`

`Cowen and Company
`Equity Research
`
`July 22, 2016
`
`Altria (MarkTen)
`
`
`
`e=For Altria, MarkTen XL has been a nice growth driver for the company, asit looks
`to have replacedtheir original offering, and driven incremental consumersinto the
`brand. Since launching the product in test markets in April 2015, MarkTen XL
`now accounts for 98% of MO dollar sales, according to Nielsen. During that same
`time frame, MO hasseenits dollar share of the category grow from ~7%to ~16%.
`MO managementhas said consumers have been moresatisfied with MarkTen XL
`compared to earlier generation MarkTen products, given XL’ bigger tank and
`longerbattery life. Asit is still early days for MarkTen XL, it is encouraging to see
`that kit sales remain a healthy contributor to MO’s overall vapor sales.
`
`Figure 12 MarkTen XL has Seemingly Replaced Earlier Gen Products...
`
`Figure 13 ...Cartridge Sales Suggest Consumer Retention has Improved
`
`
`
`Ra}
`2
`2
`Oo
`”
`S
`°°
`oO
`oO
`=
`
`well NHOkmHemHehHhlolUcrcrmlLUCCOhULO
`OO
`rarer Tre Tr
`~~ ™ ~ mm ~ > => = > ~* Dm DM
`era rrr le
`Saree S<aRRFFSgcage
`SFSessttaesernar ase
`-
`
`8
`8
`_

`—_
`=
`a 8
`Or
`Oc
`i=
`wo
`Wop
`Q
`=
`
`weer er er er er er er
`PrP ere ere Se eS
`OoOmoOnmWoMmMWmMomMmMumwommMmmommomovowoewe wo ©
`SHESSSHASRBEASRSESAOS
`NANGECKCCSAHLereggge
`oOorTrMOoonnwone- = mN MO STL OO
`
`«@MarkTen &MarkTen XL_
`Source: The Nielsen Company and Cowen and Company
`
`i@ Green Smoke
`
`m™ Cartridges ™ Kits
`Source: The Nielsen Company and Cowen and Company
`
`Reynolds (Vuse)
`
`e
`
`For Vuse,the brand hasheld its share and remained the market leader, despite
`competition and innovation from competitors. More impressively, Vuse consumers
`seem to be continually using the product as cartridge contribution to retails sales
`is now 85%. To be sure, we've also seen innovation from Vuse. RAI expanded
`further within the e-cig category with the introduction of Vuse Connect, which
`features wifi capabilities that connect to an app which offers child locking
`capabilities, as well as usage and battery tracking. RAI also launched Vuse FOB,a
`palm sized e-cig with digital display. However these products are only sold online,
`and would therefore not be captured in Nielsen-tracked channels.
`In addition,
`RAI has two other products in the pipeline, including Vuse Port (a closed-system
`tank product) and VusePro(arefillable cartridge system featuring a bigger
`battery).
`
`Figure 14 Vuse is Still the Market Leader and Growing
`
`Figure 15 Consumers Continue to Adopt and Consistently Use Vuse
`
`x
`&
`'
`
`100%
`~
`60% _
`50%
`
`80%
`=
`40% &
`_
`40%
`”
`S
`.

`& 8 60%
`20% &
`gg
`TON
`o
`30%
`faa]
`]
`j
`pa
`
`© 3 40%
`Tit ee
`= wn 20%
`SA 70%
`WU LLELE
`-20% &
`_ © 10%
`of
`i
`a
`L
`& o
`A> 0%
`:
`-40% ©
`Ss
`0%
`+t tT tT TNO MO MONON Nn oOo wo ©
`<x
`Tar TH HMMM MmMm Oo
`Qa
`8
`oO ©
`SE STP PEP SPP PPP PTUs
`= a oc
`SLCC SSSKESESLVE
`a
`SSSSRGRCSCASSS
`F<SSSFFSSRSGE aFs
`RGe AFSGBSH KGS
`
`ica Dollar Share=2 Dollar Sales Growth @Cartridges ™ Kits
`Source: The Nielsen Company and Cowen and Company
`Source: The Nielsen Company and Cowen and Company
`
`6
`
`Www.cowen.com
`
`JLI Ex. 2035, Page 6 of 13
`JLI’'S CONFIDENTIAL BUSINESS INFORMATION SUBJECT TO PROTECTIVE ORDER
`JLI-NJOY-ITC1368-02013591
`
`JLI Ex. 2035, Page 6 of 13
`
`

`

`Cowen and Company
`Equity Research
`
`July 22, 2016
`
`While these trends are all encouraging, we would caution that this growth could simply
`reflect moretrial, driven by distribution gains, as we have seen this phenomenon
`before. As a reminder, from 2012 to 2014, we saw blu’s distribution increase
`approximately 4x to ~ 150,000, accompanied by meaningful share gains. However, as
`distribution growth slowed, so did share gains, which ultimately began to fall after the
`brand reachedfull retail penetration. While the sharp share declines were partially due
`to the national launches of Vuse and MarkTen, and we've since seen blu’s brand share
`level off in the ~20% range, the company’s share is down ~50%from 2013.
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`Figure 16 Distribution And Trial Is Likely Driving Some of the Recent
`Category Growth...
`
`Figure 17 ...As We Have Seenin the Past
`
`30%
`50%
`$

`-
`2 25%

`40%
`=
`40m5
`- 30% © 3S
`to
`=
`S 15%
`20% 5
`=
`3
`g 10M
`3
`fm

`10% 9
`=
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`© 160,000
`oD
`=
`5 120,000
`3
`S 80,000 -
`3
`© 40,000
`2
`oS
`
`z
`
`Al.
`am
`0 +
`6
`6

`6
`AY NV AD AP AD AD APE AM A AO 0
`\*

`N
`\*
`oO
`oO
`oO
`pr?
`pre
`yn?
`aol”
`RN J ne
`& eA OS ea & < og oa © X< &
`
`o—em= Retail Outlets «=» Nielsen-Reported Share @2—2 Dollar Sales9=== Volume
`
`“0%
`
`SB
`
`5
`\
`
`6
`\*
`
`Source: Company Reports,, The Nielsen Company and Cowen and Company
`
`Source: The Nielsen Company and Cowen and Company
`
`With the cut-off date for new innovation rapidly approaching, it sets up these four
`players aslikely best positioned to consolidate market share. We look for companies
`across our coverage to launch any products ready for production ahead of the August
`8" deadline. Admittedly, there are a lot of unknownsasit relates to how the category
`will innovate under FDA regulation. Costly FDA user and application fees will present
`a barrier for most small player. That said, even big players will likely have trouble
`getting products on the marketin a timely fashion, as company’s would need to go
`through the PMTA approval process, which the FDA anticipate will take 180 days, but
`could take much longer given the plethora of applications the FDA will need to sort
`through for products already on the market that do not meet the grandfather date.
`
`JLI Ex. 2035, Page 7 of 13
`JL’'S CONFIDENTIAL BUSINESS INFORMATION SUBJECT TO PROTECTIVE ORDER
`JLI-NJOY-ITC1368-02013592
`
`WWW..COWER.COn
`
`7
`
`JLI Ex. 2035, Page 7 of 13
`
`

`

`Cowen and Company
`Equity Research
`
`July 22, 2016
`
`
`
`
`
`Price*
`Price Target
`Ticker
`Rating
`Price*
`Price Target
`Rating
`Ticker
`$68.73
`$67.00
`IMB.LN
`Outperform
`3,994.50p
`4,390.00p
`Market Perform
`MO
`¥4,219.00
`¥4,800.00
`RAI
`Outperform
`$51.83
`$57.00
`Market Perform
`2914.JP
`
`“As of 07/21/2016
`
`
`
`Valuation Methodology And Risks
`
`
`
`Valuation Methodology
`
`Tobacco:
`
`Our valuation methodologyis primarily based on Price-to-Earnings (P/E), followed
`by Relative Price-to-Earnings(vs. the respective relative index) as well as Enterprise
`Value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA). In cases where GAAPnet income includeslarge, non-
`cash items (e.g., restructuring charges or the resolution of disputed MSA), we may
`use non-GAAPEPS.
`
`Investment Risks
`
`Tobacco:
`
`Global tobacco demand is subject to a numberof potential headwinds. Most notably,
`increased awarenessof the risks associated with traditional tobacco use, and
`resultant regulatory actions (e.g., indoor smoking bans, enlarged textual or graphic
`warnings, and / or plain packaging) can negatively impact smoking incidence and/or
`per capita consumption, and thus industry volumes. Whatis more, the industry is also
`subject to risk from disruptive tax increases, which result in higher prices, and can
`also depress consumption. Further, while diminished, litigation risk also exists.
`
`8
`
`WWW.COWGH.COM
`
`JLI Ex. 2035, Page 8 of 13
`JL’'S CONFIDENTIAL BUSINESS INFORMATION SUBJECT TO PROTECTIVE ORDER
`JLI-NJOY-ITC1368-02013593
`
`JLI Ex. 2035, Page 8 of 13
`
`

`

`Cowen and Company
`Equity Research
`
`July 22, 2016
`
`Addendum
`
`
`
`Each authorof this research report hereby certifies that (i) the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect his or her personal views about any andall of the subject
`securities or issuers, and (ii) no part of his or her compensation was,is, or will be related, directly or indirectly, to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`important Disclosures
`Cowenand Company, LLC andorits affiliatesmake a market iin the stock of Altria Group, Imperial Brands , Japan Tobacco and Reynolds American securities.
`Cowen and Company, LLC compensates research analysts for activities and services intended to benefit the firm's investorclients. Individual compensation determinations for
`research analysts, including the author(s) of this report, are based on a variety of factors, including the overall profitability of the firm and the total revenue derived from all sources,
`including revenues from investment banking, sales and trading or principal trading revenues. Cowen and Company, LLC does not compensate research analysts based on specific
`investment banking transactions or specific sales and trading or principal trading revenues.
`The Nielsen material contained in this report represent Nielsen’s estimates and do not represents facts. Nielsen has neither reviewed nor approved this report and/or any of the
`statements madeherein.
`
`Disclaimer
`Our research reports are simultaneously available to all clients are on ourclient website. Research reports are for ourclients only. Not all research reports are disseminated,
`e-mailed or made available to third-party aggregators. Cowen and Company, LLC is not responsible for the redistribution of research by third party aggregators. Selected
`research reports are available in printed form in addition to an electronic form. All published research reports can be obtained on thefirm’s client website, https://
`cowenlibrary bluematrix.com/clienVlibraryjsp.
`
`The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts are as of the date of this report and subject to change withoutprior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate,
`but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Research reports are published atirregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's judgement.
`
`Furtherinformation on subject securities may be obtained from ouroffices. This research report is published solely for information purposes, and is not to be construed as an offer
`to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any state where such an offeror solicitation would beillegal. Other than disclosures relating to Cowen and Company,
`LLC, the information herein is based on sources we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed by us and does not purport to be a complete statement or summary of the available
`data. Any opinions expressed herein are statements of our judgment on this date and are subject to change without notice. The opinions and recommendations herein do not take
`into accountindividual client circumstances, objectives or needs and are not intended as recommendations of investment strategy. The recipients of this report must maketheir
`own independentdecisions regarding any securities subject to this research report. In some cases, securities and other financial instruments may be difficult to value or sell and
`reliable information about the valueorrisks related to the security or financial instrument may be difficult to obtain. To the extent that this report discusses any legal proceedings
`or issues, it has not been prepared to express or intended to express any legal conclusion, opinion or advice. Our salespeople, traders and other professionals may provide oral
`or written market commentary ortrading strategiesto our clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in our research. Our principal trading area
`and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with recommendations or views expressed in our research. Cowen and Company, LLC maintains
`physical, electronic and procedural information barriers to address the flow of information between and among departments within Cowen and Company, LLC in order to prevent
`and avoid conflicts of interest with respect to analyst recommendations.
`For important disclosures regarding the companies that are the subject of this research report, please contact Compliance Department, Cowen and Company, LLC, 599 Lexington
`Avenue, 20th Floor, New York, NY 10022. In addition, the same important disclosures, with the exception of the valuation methodsandrisks, are available on the Firm's disclosure
`website at htips://cowen.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action.
`
`Equity Research Price Targets: Cowen and Company, LLC assigns price targets on all companies covered in equity research unless noted otherwise. The equity research price
`target for an issuer's stock represents the value that the analyst reasonably expects the stock to reach over a performanceperiod of twelve months. Anyprice targets in equity
`securities in this report should be considered in the contextof all prior published Cowen and Company, LLC equity research reports (including the disclosures in any such equity
`report or on the Firm's disclosure website), which may or may not include equity research price targets, as well as developmentsrelating to the issuer, its industry and the financial
`markets. For equity research price target valuation methodology and risks associated with the achievementof any given equity research price target, please see the analyst's equity
`research report publishing such targets.
`
`Cowen Credit Research and Trading: Due to the nature of the fixed income market, the issuers or debt securities of the issuers discussed in “Cowen Credit Research and
`Trading” research reports do not assign ratings and price targets and may not be continuously followed. Accordingly, investors must regard such branded report as providing
`stand-alone analysis and reflecting the analyst's opinion as of the date of the report and should not expect continuing analysis or additional reports relating to such issuers or debt
`securities of the issuers.
`
`Notice to UK Investors: This publication is produced by Cowen and Company, LLC whichis regulated in the United States by FINRA.It is to be communicated only to persons
`of a kind described in Articles 19 and 49 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005. It must not be further transmitted to any other person
`without our consent.
`
`Notice to European UnionInvestors:Individuals producing recommendations are required to obtain certain licenses by the Financial Regulatory Authority (FINRA). You can
`review the author's current licensing status and history, employmenthistory and, if any, reported regulatory, customerdispute, criminal and other matters via “Brokercheck by
`FINRA’at http://brokercheckfinra.org/ An individual's licensing status with FINRA should not be construed as an endorsement by FINRA. General biographical information is also
`available for each Research Analyst at www.cowen.com.
`
`JLI Ex. 2035, Page 9 of 13
`JL’'S CONFIDENTIAL BUSINESS INFORMATION SUBJECT TO PROTECTIVE ORDER
`JLI-NJOY-ITC1368-02013594
`
`WWW.Cowen.com
`
`JLI Ex. 2035, Page 9 of 13
`
`

`

`Cowen and Company
`Equity Research
`
`July 22, 2016
`
`Additionally, the complete preceding 12-month recommendationshistory related to recommendationin this research report is available at https://cowen.bluematrix.com/sellside/
`
`Disclosures.action
`
`The recommendation contained in this report was produced at July 21, 2016, 21:51 ET. and disseminated at July 22, 2016, 06:00 ET.
`Copyright, User Agreementand other general information related to this report
`© 2016 Cowen and Company, LLC. Member NYSE, FINRA andSIPC.All rights reserved. This research report is prepared for the exclusive use of Cowen clients and may not be
`reproduced, displayed, modified, distributed, transmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, to others outside your organization without the express prior
`written consent of Cowen. Cowenresearch reports are distributed simultaneously to all clients eligible to receive such research reports. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is
`prohibited. Receipt and/or review of this research constitutes your agreementnot to reproduce,display, modify, distribute, transmit, or disclose to others outside your organization
`the contents, opinions, conclusion, or information contained in this report (including any investment recommendations, estimates or price targets). All Cowen trademarks displayed
`in this report are owned by Cowen and maynot be used withoutits prior written consent.
` oston(
`
`(866) 544-7009 Stamford (646) 616-3000 London(affiliate) 44-207-071-7500
`
`COWEN AND COMPANY EQUITY RESEARCH RATING DEFINITIONS
`
`Outperform (1): The stock is expected to achieve a total positive return of at least 15% over the next 12 months
`
`Market Perform (2): The stock is expected to haveatotal return that falls between the parameters of an Outperform and Underperform over the next 12 months
`
`Underperform (3): Stack is expected to achieve a total negative return of at least 10% over the next 12 months
`
`Assumption: The expected total return calculation includes anticipated dividend yield
`
`Cowen and Company Equity Research Rating Distribution
`Distribution of Ratings/Investment Banking Services (IB) as of 06/30/16
`
`Rating
`Count
`Ratings Distribution
`Count
`IB Services/Past 12 Months
`Buy (a)
`440
`59.22%
`69
`15.68%
`
`Hold (b)
`293
`39.43%
`13
`4.44%
`Sell (c) 0.00% 10 1.35% 0
`
`
`
`
`(a) Corresponds to "Outperform" rated stocks as defined in Cowen and Company, LLC's equity research rating definitions. (b) Corresponds to "Market Perform" as defined in Cowen
`and Company, LLC's equity research ratings definitions. (c) Corresponds to "Underperform"as defined in Cowen and Company, LLC's equity research ratings definitions. Cowen
`and Company Equity Research Rating Distribution Table does not include any company for which the equity research rating is currently suspended or any debt security followed by
`CowenCredit Research and Trading.
`
`Note: "Buy", "Hold" and "Sell" are not terms that Cowen and Company, LLC usesin its ratings system and should not be construed as investment options. Rather, these ratings
`terms are usedillustratively to comply with FINRA regulation.
`
`Altria Group Equity Research Rating History as of 07/20/2016
`powered by: BlueMatrix
`
`
`
`30
`
`y
`Oct 2013
`

`Jan2014
`
`y
`Apr2014
`

`Jul 2014
`
`3
`Oct 2014
`

`Jan2015
`

`Apr2015
`
`i
` Jul20¢5
`

`Oct 2015
`
`y
`Jan2016
`
`y
`Apr2016
`
`y
`Jul2016
`
` Closing Price —
`
`10
`
`WWW.cowen.com
`
`JLI Ex. 2035, Page 10 of 13
`JL’'S CONFIDENTIAL BUSINESS INFORMATION SUBJECT TO PROTECTIVE ORDER
`JLI-NJOY-ITC1368-02013595
`
`JLI Ex. 2035, Page 10 of 13
`
`

`

`Cowen and Company
`Equity Research
`
`July 22, 2016
`
`imperial Brands Equity Research Rating History as of 07/20/2016
`powered by: BlueMatrix
`
`“1(4):$3.370.
`(08/25/15
`
`4,600
`4,400
`4,200
`4,000
`3,800
`3,600
`3,400
`3,200
`
`Oct2013.
`
`Jan2014
`
` Apr2014
`
` Jul2014.
`
`Oct2014.
`
`Jan2045
`
`Apr2015
`
` Jul2015.
`
`Oct2015
`
`Jan2016
`
`Apr2016
`
`Jul 2016
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
` 1(2):$4,0501
`OB/25/15
`
`Japan Tobacco Equity Research Rating History as of 07/20/2016
`powered by: BlueMatrix
`
`3,500
`
`3,000
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`Oct 2013 Jul20149Oct 2014 Apr20159Jul2015) -Oct2015=Jan 2016=Apr2016Jan2014 Apr2014 Jan 2015) Jul 2016
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`Reynolds American Equity Research Rating History as of 07/20/2016
`
`
`1:(2):$82.00
`
`Lomo
`
`O2H 0/15 20
`
`y
`Oct2013
`

`Jan2014
`
`g
`Apr2014
`
`t
` Jul2014
`
`#
`Oct 2014
`
`g
`Jan2015
`
`a
`Apr2015
`
`g
`Jul2075
`
`a
`Oct 2015
`
`z
`Jan2016
`
`E
`Apr2016
`

`Jul2016
`
`
`
`Legendfor Price Chart:
`
`JLI Ex. 2035, Page 11 of 13
`JLI’'S CONFIDENTIAL BUSINESS INFORMATION SUBJECT TO PROTECTIVE ORDER
`JLI-NJOY-ITC1368-02013596
`
`WWww.cowen.com
`
`11
`
`JLI Ex. 2035, Page 11 of 13
`
`

`

`Cowen and Company
`Equity Research
`
`July 22, 2016
`
`| = Initiation | 1 = Outperform | 2 = Market Perform | 3 = Underperform | UR = Price Target Under Review | T = Terminated Coverage | $xx = Price Target | NA = NotAvailable|
`
`S=Suspended
`
`12
`
`WHA.COWER.COM
`
`JLI Ex. 2035, Page 12 of 13
`JL’'S CONFIDENTIAL BUSINESS INFORMATION SUBJECT TO PROTECTIVE ORDER
`JLI-NJOY-ITC1368-02013597
`
`JLI Ex. 2035, Page 12 of 13
`
`

`

`Points Of Contact
`
`646.562.1421 aaron.grey@cowen.com
`646.562.1351
`
`Vivien Azer
`
`New York
`
`Aaron Grey, CFA
`New York
`
`Cowen and Company
`Equity Research
`
`July 22, 2016
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`vivien.azer@cowen.com
`
`Vivien Azeris a senior analyst covering
`beverages and tobacco. She joined
`Cowenin 2014.
`
`Aaron Greyis an associate covering
`tobacco. He joined Cowen in 2014 and is
`a graduate of Villanova University.
`
`Reaching Cowen
`
`New York
`
`Boston
`
`Cleveland
`
`San Francisco
`
`599 Lexington Avenue
`New York, NY 10022
`646.562.1000
`800.221.5616
`
`Atlanta
`
`3399 Peachtree Road NE
`Suite 417
`
`Atlanta, GA 30326
`866.544.7009
`
`TwoInternational Place
`
`20006 Detroit Road
`
`Boston, MA 02110
`617.946.3700
`800.343.7068
`
`Chicago
`181 West Madison Street
`
`Suite 3135
`Chicago,IL 60602
`312.577.224

This document is available on Docket Alarm but you must sign up to view it.


Or .

Accessing this document will incur an additional charge of $.

After purchase, you can access this document again without charge.

Accept $ Charge
throbber

Still Working On It

This document is taking longer than usual to download. This can happen if we need to contact the court directly to obtain the document and their servers are running slowly.

Give it another minute or two to complete, and then try the refresh button.

throbber

A few More Minutes ... Still Working

It can take up to 5 minutes for us to download a document if the court servers are running slowly.

Thank you for your continued patience.

This document could not be displayed.

We could not find this document within its docket. Please go back to the docket page and check the link. If that does not work, go back to the docket and refresh it to pull the newest information.

Your account does not support viewing this document.

You need a Paid Account to view this document. Click here to change your account type.

Your account does not support viewing this document.

Set your membership status to view this document.

With a Docket Alarm membership, you'll get a whole lot more, including:

  • Up-to-date information for this case.
  • Email alerts whenever there is an update.
  • Full text search for other cases.
  • Get email alerts whenever a new case matches your search.

Become a Member

One Moment Please

The filing “” is large (MB) and is being downloaded.

Please refresh this page in a few minutes to see if the filing has been downloaded. The filing will also be emailed to you when the download completes.

Your document is on its way!

If you do not receive the document in five minutes, contact support at support@docketalarm.com.

Sealed Document

We are unable to display this document, it may be under a court ordered seal.

If you have proper credentials to access the file, you may proceed directly to the court's system using your government issued username and password.


Access Government Site

We are redirecting you
to a mobile optimized page.





Document Unreadable or Corrupt

Refresh this Document
Go to the Docket

We are unable to display this document.

Refresh this Document
Go to the Docket